Haynesville
Dry gas economics run on different rules than an oil play. Get an independent, engineering-based read on what your Haynesville interest is worth before you sell, buy, or hold.
The Haynesville, spanning northwest Louisiana and East Texas, is one of the deepest and most productive gas shales in the country. Reservoirs typically sit ten thousand to fourteen thousand feet down, under high pressure and high temperature, which calls for heavier casing, specialized cement, and completion designs built for the conditions. Operators have pushed laterals longer over the past several years, and modern wells often post some of the highest initial gas rates of any onshore basin. That scale is real, but so is the flip side: wells decline quickly after that first surge, and a large share of the lifetime volume comes out in the first year or two. Any valuation that treats a Haynesville well like a long, flat-declining conventional asset will overstate what is left.
Unlike the Permian or Eagle Ford, the Haynesville produces almost no oil or liquids to soften a weak gas market. Cash flow is, for practical purposes, a single-commodity stream: dry gas, sold at whatever Henry Hub and the local basis happen to be doing at the time. Combine that with steep early decline and the math becomes clear. A large portion of a well's total value is realized in its first couple of years, so the price deck used for near-term gas has an outsized effect on the present value of the interest, far more than it would in a play with a flatter production profile. A valuation built on a single optimistic strip price, or one that ignores basis and gathering deductions, can be badly wrong in either direction.
The Haynesville's location matters. It sits closer to the Gulf Coast LNG export corridor than most other major gas basins, and growing export capacity has been a real source of incremental demand for Gulf Coast gas. That proximity is a legitimate factor to build into a forward price and demand outlook. It is not, however, a guarantee of a permanent premium, and treating it that way is how valuations drift from analysis into wishful thinking. The more useful approach is a grounded, scenario-based gas price deck that reflects current strip pricing, basis differentials, and a reasonable view of how export demand phases in, rather than a single number pulled from a headline.
For an owner, the practical effect is that Haynesville value is more front-loaded and more price-dependent than in an oil-weighted basin. Timing matters. An interest behind an operator that is actively drilling and completing wells looks very different from the same acreage sitting behind a rig-light program, and the difference shows up quickly given how fast these wells decline. Owners should also look closely at net revenue interest, gathering and transportation deductions, and whether nearby permits and rig activity point to continued development or a pause. None of that is visible from a royalty check alone.
Buyers active in the Haynesville build their offers around their own gas price view and their own required return. That is not unfair, but it means an offer reflects what the asset is worth to them, not necessarily its full value to you. Before accepting an offer, or before buying a Haynesville package, it helps to have an independent number built from well-level production, decline analysis, and a defensible gas price outlook, so you can judge any offer against the underlying economics rather than a headline number.
I model Haynesville production and remaining upside in ComboCurve, the same industry-standard software used across the major U.S. basins for acquisition underwriting. That means decline-curve analysis on existing wells, identification of undeveloped locations and permits, and cash flow run out under a sensible gas price deck rather than a single spot assumption. As an independent petroleum engineer, the number I give you reflects the asset itself and is built to inform your decision. If you decide to sell after seeing the analysis, I'm also EVP of Engineering at Tilden Capital, an active mineral and royalty buyer, and Tilden would welcome the chance to compete for your business once you have an offer in hand.
If you're weighing a Haynesville interest alongside minerals in other basins, the same engineering approach applies across plays. See how the process works more generally on the mineral rights valuation page, or learn more about the underlying reserves estimation methods behind the numbers.
Common Questions
The Haynesville is a dry gas play with deep, high pressure, high temperature reservoirs, long laterals, and steep initial decline. Unlike the Permian or Eagle Ford, there is little to no oil or liquids revenue to cushion the cash flow, so value depends almost entirely on gas volumes, gas prices, and how quickly wells decline.
With no oil or significant liquids stream, every dollar of Haynesville cash flow comes from gas. Wells also produce a large share of their lifetime volume in the first year or two, so the price assumed for near-term production has an outsized effect on present value compared to a play with a flatter decline.
The Haynesville sits closer to Gulf Coast LNG export terminals than almost any other major gas basin, which can support local basis and demand for incremental supply as export capacity grows. That proximity is a real factor in a valuation, but it should be modeled with a reasonable price deck rather than assumed as a guaranteed premium.
Yes. I evaluate mineral, royalty, and working interests across the Haynesville and Bossier shale in both northwest Louisiana and East Texas, using well-level production and permit data specific to each parish or county.
Send over what you have, whether a royalty statement, an offer, or just the parish or county and section, and I'll tell you what a fair value looks like.
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